To understand the impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity on conifer forests, we studied how wildfire and seasonal post-fire climate conditions influence western larch (Larix occidentalis) regeneration across its range in the northwestern US. This dataset includes the field sampling plot data, time series data for each year and a 30 yr mean for annual climatic water deficit, a suite of post-processed spatial files used to model the final outputs, and the model rasterized estimations of recruitment probability of western larch after fire given climatic water deficit and actual evapotranspiration for time since fire years 1 though 5 and 6 though 10, for each year from 1991 to 2021 and the 30-yr mean (1991 to 2020).