Kendall C. Wnuk Michael E. Wieczorek Leah E. Staub 20250707 tabular digital data https://doi.org/10.5066/P98IG8LO These tabular datasets represent retrospective forecasts of average minimum temperature (degrees Celsius), maximum temperature (degrees Celsius), and total precipitation (millimeters) within three-hour forecasting periods derived from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) reforecast dataset (Hamill and others, 2013). Data are averaged across 7 day forecast horizons for each day within the period of record spanning 2000 through 2019. The data were compiled for two spatial components: 1) select United States Geological Survey streamgage basins (Staub and others, 2023), 2) individual reach flowline catchments of the Upper Colorado (ucol) portion of the Geospatial Fabric for the National Hydrologic Model, version 1.1 (Bock and others, 2020). Flowline reach catchment information characterizes data at the local scale using the python tool set called gdptools (McDonald, 2021). These datasets were created by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Data-Driven Drought Prediction Project of the Drought Science Program within the Water Resources Mission Area's Water Availability and Use Science Program (WAUSP). This project focuses on the development of regional and national model prototypes for streamflow drought prediction. These data were processed to estimate the average forecasted minimum temperature (degrees Celsius), maximum temperature (degrees Celsius), and total precipitation (millimeters) within a three-hour period across 7 day time horizons from GEFS reforecast data for flowline catchments and upstream river networks of the Upper Colorado portion of the Geospatial Fabric for the National Hydrologic Model, version 1.1 (nhgfv1.1) and for select watersheds of the conterminous United States streamgage locations to support statistical analysis, map display, and model parameterization. The data processed here serves as part of the spatial infrastructure for modeling efforts of the USGS's Data-Driven Drought Prediction Project. The zonal units described in the abstract were used to process statistical model inputs. A mean statistic is calculated for each zone (catchment), based on values from the source ancillary data set (See Process_Description for more details). 20000101 20191231 ground condition Complete None planned -129.7712 -63.1667 54.8088 21.0821 Conterminous United States ISO 19115 Topic Category climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere None Temperature (Celsius) Inlandwaters Catchments CONUS Conterminous United States Geospatial Fabric Hydrologic Modeling GEFS Precipitation Meteorological Forecasts USGS Metadata Identifier USGS:6852ef7fd4be023cfee776ee None Conterminous United States Upper Colorado River None. Please see 'Distribution Info' for details. One should read this document before using these data, especially when attempting to estimate values in smaller areas. These data should not be used for site-specific evaluation, surveying, or engineering purposes. They should also not be used beyond the limits of the source data's scale. Use of this data is considered acceptance of the limitations of this data and that the user has read and understood this metadata prior to its use in any form. Michael E Wieczorek U.S. Geological Survey, Northeast Region Geographer mailing address

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Catonsville MD 21228 US 443-498-5550 443-498-5510 mewieczo@usgs.gov Thomas M. Hamill Gary T. Bates Jeffrey S. Whitaker Donald R. Murray Michael Fiorino Thomas J. Galarneau Yuejian Zhu William Lapenta 20131001 publication Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society vol. 94, issue 10 n/a American Meteorological Society ppg. 1553-1565 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00014.1 Michael E Wieczorek Leah E Staub Kendall C. Wnuk Konrad C Hafen 2023 dataset https://www.sciencebase.gov U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/p98ig8lo Andrew R Bock Marilyn Santiago Michael E Wieczorek Sydney S Foks Melissa A Lombard 2020 dataset https://www.sciencebase.gov U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/p971jagf Richard McDonald 2021 application/service https://gdptools.readthedocs.io/en/latest/index.html No attribute accuracy was performed. Values were spot checked with the source information to ensure the processed values were within the original data ranges. Datasets are complete as described in abstract. Andrew R Bock Marilyn Santiago Michael E Wieczorek Sydney S Foks Melissa A Lombard 2020 dataset https://www.sciencebase.gov U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/p971jagf Digital and/or Hardcopy 2020 publication date nhgfv1.1 The source data provided the hydrologic framework and routing information for the Upper Colorado River basin. Richard M. McDonald 2021 application/service https://code.usgs.gov/wma/nhgf/toolsteam/gdptools U.S. Geological Survey https://gdptools.readthedocs.io/en/latest/ https://code.usgs.gov/wma/nhgf/toolsteam/gdptools Digital and/or Hardcopy 20230301 publication date gdptools The gdtools software produced network summarizations for the climate metrics. Michael E. Wieczorek Leah E. Staub Kendall C. Wnuk Konrad C. Hafen 20250501 vector digital data Digital and/or Hardcopy 20000101 20191231 publication date rdews_gages Source data provided spatial processing units. Climate Hazards Center 2021 publication n/a Climate Hazards Center https://doi.org/10.15780/g2ph2m Digital and/or Hardcopy 2021 publication date GEFS Source data provided information on forecasted temperature and precipitation. gdptools was used to process GEFS retrospective forecast variables to nhgfv1.1 and USGS gaged basins. The workflow is described as follows: a) Daily json files of the three-hour timestep forecast data were downloaded for 1-7 day forecast horizons for minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation data spanning 2000 through 2019. These files were accessed by way of the NOAA GEFS retrospective S3 bucket. The json files were then converted to netCDF files for workflow compatibility purposes. b) A single netCDF file was converted into a vector format, with each 1ºx1º raster cell represented by a single polygon feature. This polygon was used for all netCDF files, as each file spanned the same extent with the same raster resolution. c) A weighting file was created by using rdews_gages and overlaying the output from above. This union was performed to attribute the area of each GEFS raster cell polygon that lies within an associated rdews basin. The proportion of each raster cell present in each rdews_basin was determined by taking the intersected area of each raster cell polygon (after the overlay was performed) and dividing by the original raster cell area. d) The weighting file from above was then used to calculate averages of each downloaded GEFS variable for all nhgfv1.1 and rdews gage flowline catchments. The value of each GEFS variable in a raster cell polygon was multiplied by the proportion of that raster cell that occurred in the drainage basin to produce an area-weighted value per raster cell. e) A mean value for each rdews_basin was calculated by taking the area-weighted average value of all GEFS cells occurring in each rdews_basin. f) The output file was converted to comma separated format. g) The process above was performed to calculate metrics for each downloaded GEFS variable for nhgfv1.1 and rdews gage basins. See gdptools documentation for further details. GEFS gdptools nhgfv1.1 rdews_gages 20240301 Michael E Wieczorek U.S. Geological Survey, Northeast Region Geographer mailing address

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Catonsville MD 21228 US 443-498-5550 443-498-5510 mewieczo@usgs.gov tmax1to7day_DegC_gefs_nhgf1_2000_2019_mean.csv Comma delimited text file containing mean maximum temperature in degrees Celsius averaged across three-hour timesteps for a 1-7 day forecast period for nhgfv1.1 catchments U.S. Geological Survey Date Calendar date in YYYY-MM-DD format where YYYY is 4 digit year, MM is 2 digit month, and DD is 2 digit day. For example, 2001-03-03 March 3, 2001. U.S. Geological Survey 2000-01-01 2019-12-31 day XXXXXXXX Mean maximum temperature in degrees Celsius forecasted for the next 7 days from the date of forecast. for a watershed, where XXXXXXXX is the catchment identifier for nhgfv1.1. U.S. Geological Survey 8.773 41.639 Degrees Celsius tmin1to7day_DegC_gefs_nhgf1_2000_2019_mean.csv Comma delimited text file containing mean minimum temperature in degrees Celsius averaged across three-hour timesteps for a 1-7 day forecast period for nhgfv1.1 catchments U.S. Geological Survey Date Calendar date in YYYY-MM-DD format where YYYY is 4 digit year, MM is 2 digit month, and DD is 2 digit day. For example, 2001-03-03 March 3, 2001. U.S. Geological Survey 2000-01-01 2019-12-31 day XXXXXXXX Mean minimum temperature in degrees Celsius forecasted for the next 7 days from the date of forecast. for a watershed, where XXXXXXXX is the catchment identifier for nhgfv1.1. U.S. Geological Survey 5.076 37.988 Degrees Celsius tp1to7day_mm_gefs_nhgf1_2000_2019_mean.csv Comma delimited text file containing mean three-hourly total precipitation in millimeters averaged across a 1-7 day forecast period for nhgfv1.1 catchments U.S. Geological Survey Date Calendar date in YYYY-MM-DD format where YYYY is 4 digit year, MM is 2 digit month, and DD is 2 digit day. For example, 2001-03-03 March 3, 2001. U.S. Geological Survey 2000-01-01 2019-12-31 day XXXXXXXX Mean three-hourly total precipitation in millimeters averaged across a 1-7 day forecast period for a watershed, where XXXXXXXX is the catchment identifier for nhgfv1.1. U.S. Geological Survey 0 6.421 Millimeters tmax1to7day_DegC_gefs_conus_gaged_2000_2019_mean.csv Comma delimited text file containing mean maximum temperature in degrees Celsius averaged across three-hour timesteps for a 1-7 day forecast period for rdews-gages U.S. Geological Survey Date Calendar date in YYYY-MM-DD format where YYYY is 4 digit year, MM is 2 digit month, and DD is 2 digit day. For example, 2001-03-03 March 3, 2001. U.S. Geological Survey 2000-01-01 2019-12-31 day XXXXXXXX Mean maximum temperature in degrees Celsius within a three-hour timestep across a 7-day forecast for the date derived from GEFS retrospective data for a watershed, where XXXXXXXX is the U.S. streamgage station identifier, including leading 0's. U.S. Geological Survey 10.193 41.593 Degrees Celsius tmin1to7day_DegC_gefs_conus_gaged_2000_2019_mean.csv Comma delimited text file containing mean minimum temperature in degrees Celsius averaged across three-hour timesteps for a 1-7 day forecast period for rdews-gages. U.S. Geological Survey Date Calendar date in YYYY-MM-DD format where YYYY is 4 digit year, MM is 2 digit month, and DD is 2 digit day. For example, 2001-03-03 March 3, 2001. U.S. Geological Survey 2000-01-01 2019-12-31 day XXXXXXXX Mean minimum temperature in degrees Celsius within a three-hour timestep across a 7-day forecast for the date derived from GEFS retrospective data for a watershed, where XXXXXXXX is the U.S. streamgage station identifier, including leading 0's. U.S. Geological Survey 8.382 37.414 Degrees Celsius tp1to7day_mm_gefs_conus_gaged_2000_2019_mean.csv Comma delimited text file containing mean three-hourly total precipitation in millimeters across a 1-7 day retrospective forecast for rdews-gages U.S. Geological Survey Date Calendar date in YYYY-MM-DD format where YYYY is 4 digit year, MM is 2 digit month, and DD is 2 digit day. For example, 2001-03-03 March 3, 2001. U.S. Geological Survey 2000-01-01 2019-12-31 day XXXXXXXX Mean three-hourly total precipitation in millimeters averaged across a 1-7 day forecast period for a watershed, where XXXXXXXX is the U.S. streamgage station identifier, including leading 0's. U.S. Geological Survey 0.002 12.621 Millimeters GS ScienceBase U.S. Geological Survey mailing address

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Denver CO 80225 United States 1-888-275-8747 sciencebase@usgs.gov Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. Digital Data https://doi.org/10.5066/P98IG8LO None 20250731 Michael E Wieczorek U.S. Geological Survey, Northeast Region Geographer mailing address

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Catonsville MD 21228 US 443-498-5550 443-498-5510 mewieczo@usgs.gov FGDC Biological Data Profile of the Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata FGDC-STD-001.1-1999