Nathan DeMaagd Clay Trauernicht 20250710 raster digital data Sciencebase U.S. Geological Survey Data Release Nathan DeMaagd (https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7558-0685), University of Hawaii at Manoa; Clay Trauernicht (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1509-8536), University of Hawaii at Manoa https://doi.org/10.5066/P1DQR8B9 The goal of this project is to expand upon the land cover rasters developed for the Hawaii Carbon Assessment by simulating future land cover scenarios. Although such land cover spread simulations have been produced in the past, this is the first attempt at developing a statewide product that also incorporates the latest empirical land cover spread rate data, as well as land cover spread susceptibility data, to better estimate the future extents of nonnative forests and grasses. Additionally, we simulate the restoration of native forests in land cover management units and the loss of forest to wildfire. There are six rasters total: three scenarios each with results for the years 2070 and 2100. The scenarios are as follows: No protection: The spread of nonnative forests and nonnative grasses is uninhibited, there is no restoration of native forest within management units, and there is no reduction in fire-driven forest loss; Targeted protection: The spread of nonnative forests and nonnative grasses is prevented from occurring in land cover management areas, but there are no native forest restoration efforts. Statewide fire-driven forest loss is reduced 50%; Targeted protection and restoration: The spread of nonnative forests and nonnative grasses is prevented from occurring in land cover management areas, and native forest is restored within these areas. Statewide fire-driven forest loss is reduced 100%. The purpose of the data are to be used for modeling various future land cover-dependent ecosystem services scenarios, including changes to water yield, soil carbon, and fire risk. 2070 2100 The data were developed primarily using existing land cover rasters generated for the Hawaii Carbon Assessment project. Unpublished data from the Oahu Army Natural Resources Program and an annual, fractional land cover product (Lucas 2017) were used to inform nonnative forest and nonnative grass spread rates, respectively. Additionally, the specific pixels chosen for conversion were decided using land cover susceptibility rasters developed by Fortini et al. (2024). Complete As needed -159.7883 -154.7150 22.2302 18.8826 ISO 19115 Topic Category environment geoscientificInformation USGS Thesaurus land use and land cover vegetation geospatial datasets fires None ecosystem services water yield soil carbon fire risk USGS Metadata Identifier USGS:682f80e6d4be027fab6e237e Common geographic areas Hawaii Oahu Kauai Maui Molokai Lanai None Hawaiian Islands No access constraints. Please see 'Distribution Information' for details. These data are marked with a Creative Common CC0 1.0 Universal License. These data are in the public domain and do not have any use constraints. Users are advised to read the dataset's metadata thoroughly to understand appropriate use and data limitations. Clay Trauernicht University of Hawaii at Manoa mailing and physical

1910 East-West Rd 101

Honolulu HI 96822 USA 808-956-6875 trauerni@hawaii.edu U.S Geological Survey Pacific Islands CASC The data provide land cover types for the main Hawaiian Islands for land cover spread simulations for the years 2070 and 2100. They are stored as rasters with a 30m resolution and NAD 83 UTM Zone 4 projection. The dimensions are 12526 pixels by 19406 pixels with extent 364381, 946561, 2089743, 2465523 (xmin, xmax, ymin, ymax). The land cover values use the same codes as the Hawaii Carbon Assessment. Data were produced using R project programming language. Source code can be found here: https://github.com/natedemaagd/PICASC-land-cover/tree/main/Code. Jade M. S. Delevaux Kostantinos A. Stamoulis Natalie Kurashima Clay Trauernicht Tamara Ticktin Nathan DeMaagd Lida Teneva Gina McGuire Zoe Hastings Silao Leah L. Bremer 20250223 publication npj Ocean Sustainability vol. 4, issue 1 n/a Springer Science and Business Media LLC https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-024-00090-6 Data were based on simulations, which used observed rates of spread from plot-based and remotely sensed data and models of predicted susceptibility both for invasive species and fire occurrence. As such, projected land covers represent potential, rather than predicted, future scenarios and do not provide means by which to validate or ascertain certainty. This dataset represents projected land covers represent potential, rather than predicted, so there isn't a method to confirm expected ranges. However, all data were checked for duplications and align with described methodologies for producing. The data are complete for the main Hawaiian Islands. Lucas Berio Fortini Lauren R. Kaiser Curtis C. Daehler James D. Jacobi Monica Dimson Thomas W. Gillespie 20240323 publication Biological Invasions vol. 26, issue 6 n/a Springer Science and Business Media LLC ppg. 1827-1843 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-024-03284-8 Digital and/or Hardcopy 2024 publication date Fortini et al. 2024 Used land cover spread susceptibility rasters in land cover spread simulations. James D Jacobi Jonathan P Price Lucas B Fortini Gon III, Samuel M Paul Berkowitz 2017 dataset https://www.sciencebase.gov U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/f7db80b9 Digital and/or Hardcopy 2007 2014 ground condition Jacobi et al. 2017 Used for the baseline land cover raster. Matthew Lucas 2017 publication https://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/server/api/core/bitstreams/8615b6a1-4efd-4d63-98c3-80d6dab260b2/content Digital and/or Hardcopy 2017 publication date Lucas 2017 Used fractional land cover raster products to determine rate of nonnative grass spread and growth of native forests within management areas Matthew Lucas Nathan DeMaagd Clay Trauernicht 2024 raster digital data n/a National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers https://doi.org/10.21429/jwcd-k009 Digital and/or Hardcopy 2050 2100 ground condition Trauernicht et al. 2024 Used fire risk raster product to determine fire-driven forest loss Hawaii Division of Land and Natural Resources 2024 shapefiles Digital and/or Hardcopy 2024 publication date Hawaii DLNR 2024 Used shapefile for defining land cover management areas Kelsey Brock 2023 publication n/a National Climate Adaptation Science Centers https://doi.org/10.21429/m3zw-ew45 Digital and/or Hardcopy 2100 ground condition Brock 2023 Used fire risk raster product to determine fire-driven forest loss. National Park Service 2024 Shapefiles https://public-nps.opendata.arcgis.com/maps/nps::nps-land-resources-division-boundary-and-tract-data-service/about Digital and/or Hardcopy 2024 publication date NPS 2024 Shapefile used to assist in defining protected management units. Army Natural Resource Program 2024 tabular digital data Digital and/or Hardcopy 2024 ground condition Army NRP 2024 Used for determining the spread rate of nonnative forests Leah L. Bremer Christopher A. Wada Sarah Medoff Jonathan Page Kim Falinski Kimberly M. Burnett 201910 publication Science of The Total Environment vol. 688 n/a Elsevier BV ppg. 1422-1432 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.220 Digital and/or Hardcopy 2021 publication date Bremer et al. 2019 This projects land cover spread simulation is a modified version of this model The land cover spread simulation is a modified version of the model used in Bremer et al. (2019). Using the spread rates of nonnative forest and nonnative grass obtained from the data described above, we determined what percentage of remaining land covers susceptible to spread were to be converted. To choose which specific pixels were to be converted, the susceptibility layers developed by Fortini et al. (2024) were used. Bremer et al. 2019 Fortini et al. 2024 2024 Spread rates of nonnative forest and nonnative grasses were calculated using data provided by the Oahu Army Natural Resource Program (unpublished data) and Lucas (2017). Lucas 2017 2024 Using the land cover raster from the Hawaii Carbon Assessment project and the spread rates determined above, the number of pixels to convert were determined. Jacobi et al. 2017 2024 The susceptibility of pixels adjacent to existing nonnative land covers from Fortini (2024) were used to choose which pixels to convert to the nonnative land cover. This process was repeated to create yearly land cover rasters through the year 2100. Fortini et al. 2024 2024 Using the rate of fire-driven forest loss and fire risk rasters developed by Trauernicht et al. 2024, the required number of pixels in the years 2070 and 2100 were converted from forest to nonnative grasses. Both native and nonnative forest were allowed to be affected by fire-driven forest loss. Trauernicht et al. 2024 Brock 2023 2024 The spread of nonnative forest and the spread of nonnative grasses were run independently, with minimal overlap between the two simulations due to the extents of the land covers considered susceptible to each spread type. The resulting rasters were masked for the various conservation scenarios. 2024 Raster Grid Cell 12175 17443 1 Universal Transverse Mercator 4 0.9996 -159.0 0.0 500000.0 0.0 row and column 30.0 30.0 meters North_American_Datum_1983 GRS 1980 6378137.0 298.257222101004 MHI Land Cover Projections 2070 - No Protection Scenario Raster geospatial data file representing land cover projections for 2070 under no protection (The spread of nonnative forests and nonnative grasses is uninhibited, there is no restoration of native forest within management units, and there is no reduction in fire-driven forest loss) Producer Defined Value Each pixel in the rasters is associated with an integer value corresponding to the type of land cover in the pixel. Reference the spreadsheet linked below for a table linking the codes to land cover names. Producer Defined land cover codes 65535 This is ocean and no data value is assigned. Producer defined The land cover codes are based on the land cover rasters of the Hawaii Carbon Assessment project (https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/pp1834) but provide additional categories specifying the overlap between ecosystems and agricultural land use as specified by 2020 Agricultural Land Use product for the Main Hawaiian Islands (https://opendata.hawaii.gov/dataset/agricultural-land-use-2020-update). Land cover codes are available in this data release. MHI Land Cover Projections 2070 - Targeted Protection and Restoration Scenario Raster geospatial data file representing land cover projections for 2070 under Targeted protection and restoration (The spread of nonnative forests and nonnative grasses is prevented from occurring in land cover management areas, and native forest is restored within these areas. Statewide fire-driven forest loss is reduced 100%) Producer Defined Value Each pixel in the rasters is associated with an integer value corresponding to the type of land cover in the pixel. Reference the spreadsheet linked below for a table linking the codes to land cover names. Producer Defined land cover codes 65535 This is ocean and no data value is assigned. Producer defined The land cover codes are based on the land cover rasters of the Hawaii Carbon Assessment project (https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/pp1834) but provide additional categories specifying the overlap between ecosystems and agricultural land use as specified by 2020 Agricultural Land Use product for the Main Hawaiian Islands (https://opendata.hawaii.gov/dataset/agricultural-land-use-2020-update). Land cover codes are available in this data release. MHI Land Cover Projections 2070 - Targeted Protection Scenario Raster geospatial data file representing land cover projections for 2070 under Targeted protection (The spread of nonnative forests and nonnative grasses is prevented from occurring in land cover management areas, but there are no native forest restoration efforts. Statewide fire-driven forest loss is reduced 50%.) Producer Defined Value Each pixel in the rasters is associated with an integer value corresponding to the type of land cover in the pixel. Reference the spreadsheet linked below for a table linking the codes to land cover names. Producer Defined land cover codes 65535 This is ocean and no data value is assigned. Producer defined The land cover codes are based on the land cover rasters of the Hawaii Carbon Assessment project (https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/pp1834) but provide additional categories specifying the overlap between ecosystems and agricultural land use as specified by 2020 Agricultural Land Use product for the Main Hawaiian Islands (https://opendata.hawaii.gov/dataset/agricultural-land-use-2020-update). Land cover codes are available in this data release. MHI Land Cover Projections 2100 - No Protection Scenario Raster geospatial data file representing land cover projections for 2100 under no protection (The spread of nonnative forests and nonnative grasses is uninhibited, there is no restoration of native forest within management units, and there is no reduction in fire-driven forest loss) Producer Defined Value Each pixel in the rasters is associated with an integer value corresponding to the type of land cover in the pixel. Reference the spreadsheet linked below for a table linking the codes to land cover names. Producer Defined land cover codes 65535 This is ocean and no data value is assigned. Producer defined The land cover codes are based on the land cover rasters of the Hawaii Carbon Assessment project (https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/pp1834) but provide additional categories specifying the overlap between ecosystems and agricultural land use as specified by 2020 Agricultural Land Use product for the Main Hawaiian Islands (https://opendata.hawaii.gov/dataset/agricultural-land-use-2020-update). Land cover codes are available in this data release. MHI Land Cover Projections 2100 - Targeted Protection and Restoration Scenario Raster geospatial data file representing land cover projections for 2100 under Targeted protection and restoration (The spread of nonnative forests and nonnative grasses is prevented from occurring in land cover management areas, and native forest is restored within these areas. Statewide fire-driven forest loss is reduced 100%) Producer Defined Value Each pixel in the rasters is associated with an integer value corresponding to the type of land cover in the pixel. Reference the spreadsheet linked below for a table linking the codes to land cover names. Producer Defined land cover codes 65535 This is ocean and no data value is assigned. Producer defined The land cover codes are based on the land cover rasters of the Hawaii Carbon Assessment project (https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/pp1834) but provide additional categories specifying the overlap between ecosystems and agricultural land use as specified by 2020 Agricultural Land Use product for the Main Hawaiian Islands (https://opendata.hawaii.gov/dataset/agricultural-land-use-2020-update). Land cover codes are available in this data release. MHI Land Cover Projections 2100 - Targeted Protection Scenario Raster geospatial data file representing land cover projections for 2100 under Targeted protection (The spread of nonnative forests and nonnative grasses is prevented from occurring in land cover management areas, but there are no native forest restoration efforts. Statewide fire-driven forest loss is reduced 50%.) Producer Defined Value Each pixel in the rasters is associated with an integer value corresponding to the type of land cover in the pixel. Reference the spreadsheet linked below for a table linking the codes to land cover names. Producer Defined land cover codes 65535 This is ocean and no data value is assigned. Producer defined The land cover codes are based on the land cover rasters of the Hawaii Carbon Assessment project (https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/pp1834) but provide additional categories specifying the overlap between ecosystems and agricultural land use as specified by 2020 Agricultural Land Use product for the Main Hawaiian Islands (https://opendata.hawaii.gov/dataset/agricultural-land-use-2020-update). Land cover codes are available in this data release. MHI Land Cover Projections land cover codes.csv The land cover codes are based on the land cover rasters of the Hawaii Carbon Assessment project (https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/pp1834) but provide additional categories specifying the overlap between ecosystems and agricultural land use as specified by 2020 Agricultural Land Use product for the Main Hawaiian Islands (https://opendata.hawaii.gov/dataset/agricultural-land-use-2020-update). Land cover codes are available here and attached. Producer Defined Value Land cover codes. Producer Defined 10 14800 Count Number of pixels in that land cover type. Producer Defined 1 2894911 luc Land cover codes. Producer Defined 10 14800 names Name of land cover type based on land cover rasters of the Hawaii Carbon Assessment project with additional categories specifying the overlap between ecosystems and agricultural land use as specified by 2020 Agricultural Land Use product for the Main Hawaiian Islands. Producer Defined Unique names of land cover type based on land cover rasters of the Hawaii Carbon Assessment project with additional categories specifying the overlap between ecosystems and agricultural land use as specified by 2020 Agricultural Land Use product for the Main Hawaiian Islands GS ScienceBase U.S. Geological Survey mailing address

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Denver CO 80225 United States 1-888-275-8747 sciencebase@usgs.gov Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. Digital Data https://doi.org/10.5066/P1DQR8B9 None 20250710 Climate Adaptation Science Centers mailing

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