Adam Terando Peng Gao John A. Kupfer Kevin S. Young Kevin Hiers 20250110 vector digital data https://doi.org/10.5066/P13FFXWV Adam Terando Peng Gao John A. Kupfer Kevin S. Young Kevin Hiers 2024 publication Global Environmental Change Advances https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecadv.2024.100007 Managing and adapting to changing wildland fire regimes due to human-caused global warming can be facilitated through the use of analog mapping of potential climate-influenced outcomes. This dataset contains results from a simple process-based model, PC2FM, to derive projected analog fire regimes with respect to the potential fire probability concept. This concept is based on the potential energy and fuels available in the background environmental state under pre-industrial conditions for the coterminous US. To map climate-fire analog futures, three key relevant variables are used in addition to fire probability derived from PC2FM: annual temperature, annual precipitation, and precipitation seasonality. Projections of the climate-fire analogs are provided for 20 downscaled climate models under two climate forcing scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for two time periods (2040-2069 and 2070-2099) and 655 protected areas in the conterminous U.S. These data were collected in order to develop a model of projected analog wildland fire conditions for selected protected areas in the conterminous United States. Appropriate uses of the data include visualizations and associated analyses of projected analog protected areas for a given protected area of interest. The data should not be viewed as forecasts or predictions of exact outcomes given the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emissions and the complicated ecosystem interactions that determine wildland fire regimes. 20400101 20991231 projection Complete None planned -126.7383 -66.0938 50.0642 23.4834 ISO 19115 Topic Category geoscientificInformation climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere environment None Climate change adaptation Wildland fire Analog mapping USGS Thesaurus protected areas fires geospatial datasets USGS Metadata Identifier USGS:65ccd3aed34ef4b119cb3b5a None Conterminous U.S. None. Please see 'Distribution Info' for details. None. Users are advised to read the dataset's metadata thoroughly to understand appropriate use and data limitations. Adam Terando Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Ecologist mailing

NC State University

Raleigh NC 27695 US 919-515-4448 No formal attribute accuracy tests were conducted. Data were checked for duplication, omission, and logical consistency. All values fall within expected ranges. Data set is considered complete for the information presented, as described in the abstract. Users are advised to read the rest of the metadata record carefully for additional details. John Abatzlaglou 2014 tabular digital data https://climate.northwestknowledge.net/MACA/ Digital and/or Hardcopy 1970 2099 time period of model MACA Statistically downscaled 4km outputs from 20 global climate models (GCMs) are used to calculate the mean fire interval (MFI) and seasonal precipitation entropy that are used to calculate the projected analog locations. The historical baseline period (1971-2000) came from the hindcast ‘climate of the 20th century’ GCM experiment, while temperature and precipitation were projected for mid-century (2040-2069) and end-of-century (2070-2099) conditions under scenarios representing lower and higher climate forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP): RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively). .S. Geological Survey Gap Analysis Project 2022 tabular digital data https://www.usgs.gov/programs/gap-analysis-project/science/pad-us-data-overview Digital and/or Hardcopy 2022 publication date PAD-US Protected areas from the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the National Park Service, and the US Forest Service were used to form the basis of 655 units used to calculate the projected analogs. There are two primary data sources associated with this dataset. First, polygons delineating boundaries of all protected area units for the US Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS), the National Park Service (NPS), and the US Forest Service (USFS) were obtained for the conterminous US from the PAD-US database. PAD-US classifies all units by a GAP status code that ranges from 1 (the highest degree of biodiversity management and no suppression of natural processes) to 4 (no known mandate for biodiversity protection); we selected only those polygons with a code of 1-3, thereby including only areas managed to some degree for biodiversity. All National Trails and Rivers were removed because their linear nature posed a challenge to the development of unit analogs. Of the remaining units, several consisted of multiple polygons for an individual refuge, forest, or park, often because the unit spanned multiple states or had additional lands added through time. Such polygons were merged to create a single unit boundary. Because the focus of this research is on wildland fire and fire management, we chose to analyze only units > 400 ha in size. After removing smaller units, we went through the remaining entries and deleted roughly a dozen more units with no recent evidence of burning or mention of fire management in their comprehensive management plans. The final protected areas dataset contained 655 units. PAD-US 20220823 Second, 4km grids of statistically downscaled climate data, and polygons of protected areas in the conterminous US (see source inputs) were used to calculate the mean fire interval (MFI) and seasonal precipitation entropy for each of the 655 protected area units. Once the climate and MFI variables were processed for all GCMs and the two RCP scenarios, the pairwise multivariate Mahalanobis distance was calculated to determine the closest analog unit to the unit in question for the two projected time periods (2040-2069 and 2070-2099). To gauge the amount of variability in projected analog outcomes, a different measure of entropy, the ensemble entropy, was calculated for each of the 655 units. MACA 20220823 Vector Entity point 655 Albers Conical Equal Area 29.5 45.5 -96.0 23.0 0.0 0.0 coordinate pair 0.6096 0.6096 meters North_American_Datum_1983 GRS 1980 6378137.0 298.257222101 Units655Data.shp Attribute Table Table containing attribute information associated with the data set. Producer Defined FID Internal feature number. ESRI Sequential unique whole numbers that are automatically generated. Shape Feature geometry. ESRI Shape type. Unit_Nm The official name of the management unit. Producer Defined Data type is text. Values are the management unit name. AreaAcre The total size of the management unit in acres. Producer Defined 1001.28 3890690.0 acre Own_Name The acronym of the organization that owns the management unit. Producer Defined National Park Service National Park Service Producer defined U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Producer defined Forest Service U.S. Forest Service Producer defined Loc_Ds A description of the type of management unit. Producer Defined Conservation Area Conservation Area Producer defined Ecological and Historic Preserve Ecological and Historic Preserve Producer defined National Battlefield National Battlefield Producer defined National Battlefield Park National Battlefield Park Producer defined National Forest National Forest Producer defined National Grassland National Grassland Producer defined National Historic Site National Historic Site Producer defined National Historical Park National Historical Park Producer defined National Historical Park and Preserve National Historical Park and Preserve Producer defined National Lakeshore National Lakeshore Producer defined National Battlefield National Battlefield Producer defined National Historical Reserve National Historical Reserve Producer defined National Lakeshore National Lakeshore Producer defined National Memorial National Memorial Producer defined National Military Park National Military Park Producer defined National Monument National Monument Producer defined National Park National Park Producer defined National Park and Preserve National Park and Preserve Producer defined National Preserve National Preserve Producer defined National Recreational Area National Recreational Area Producer defined National Reserve National Reserve Producer defined National Seashore National Seashore Producer defined National Wildlife Refuge National Wildlife Refuge Producer defined Wildlife Management Area Wildlife Management Area Producer defined Unit_ID A numerical ID that was assigned to the unit during the study to simplify internal recordkeeping. Producer Defined 1 655 lon The longitudinal coordinate of the centroid point. Producer Defined -124.21586627 -67.31012505 decimal degrees lat The latitudinal coordinate of the centroid point. Producer Defined 25.37514547 48.84517323 decimal degrees avgdist45M The average distance from the management unit centroid to the centroid of the analog under climate scenario RCP 4.5 for the years 2040–2069. Distances are weighted based on the number of GCMs in agreement on the future analog. Producer Defined 0.0 3890.13848065 km avgdist45E The average distance from the management unit centroid to the centroid of the analog under climate scenario RCP 4.5 for the years 2070–2099. Distances are weighted based on the number of GCMs in agreement on the future analog. Producer Defined 0.0 3890.13848065 km avgdist85M The average distance from the management unit centroid to the centroid of the analog under climate scenario RCP 8.5 for the years 2040–2069. Distances are weighted based on the number of GCMs in agreement on the future analog. Producer Defined 0.0 2248.30630968 km avgdist85E The average distance from the management unit centroid to the centroid of the analog under climate scenario RCP 8.5 for the years 2070–2099. Distances are weighted based on the number of GCMs in agreement on the future analog. Producer Defined 4.29907572255 2283.49761219 km self45M The number of GCMs in which the management unit was its own future analog under climate scenario RCP 4.5 for the years 2040-2069. Producer Defined 0 20 self45E The number of GCMs in which the management unit was its own future analog under climate scenario RCP 4.5 for the years 2070-2099. Producer Defined 0 20 self85M The number of GCMs in which the management unit was its own future analog under climate scenario RCP 8.5 for the years 2040-2069. Producer Defined 0 20 self85E The number of GCMs in which the management unit was its own future analog under climate scenario RCP 8.5 for the years 2070-2099. Producer Defined 0 19 count_45M The number of unique analogs paired to the management unit under climate scenario RCP 4.5 for the years 2040-2069. Producer Defined 1 18 count_45E The number of unique analogs paired to the management unit under climate scenario RCP 4.5 for the years 2070-2099. Producer Defined 1 19 count_85M The number of unique analogs paired to the management unit under climate scenario RCP 8.5 for the years 2040-2069. Producer Defined 1 19 count_85E The number of unique analogs paired to the management unit under climate scenario RCP 8.5 for the years 2070-2099. Producer Defined 2 20 Entropy45M The ensemble entropy for the GCMs used to project analogs under climate scenario RCP 4.5 for the years 2040-2069. Producer Defined 0.0 1.240823997 Entropy45E The ensemble entropy for the GCMs used to project analogs under climate scenario RCP 4.5 for the years 2070-2099. Producer Defined 0.0 1.270926996 Entropy85M The ensemble entropy for the GCMs used to project analogs under climate scenario RCP 8.5 for the years 2040-2069. Producer Defined 0.0 1.270926996 Entropy85E The ensemble entropy for the GCMs used to project analogs under climate scenario RCP 8.5 for the years 2070-2099. Producer Defined 0.086214075 1.301029996 FlowLineData.shp Attribute Table Table containing attribute information associated with the data set. Producer Defined FID Internal feature number. ESRI Sequential unique whole numbers that are automatically generated. Shape Feature geometry. ESRI Shape type. org The unit ID of the management unit in the unit-analog pairing. The base of the line starts here. Producer Defined 1 655 des The unit ID of the projected analog in the unit-analog pairing. The line travels to here. Producer Defined 0 655 count The number of GCMs in agreement on the unit-analog pairing. Producer Defined 0 20 length The distance (in kilometers) from the management unit to the paired analog. Producer Defined 2.75746809555 3890.13848065 km Scenario The future climate scenario in which the unit-analog pairing was calculated. Producer Defined RCP45E RCP 4.5 for years of 2070-2099 Producer defined RCP45M RCP 4.5 for years of 2040-2069 Producer defined RCP85E RCP 8.5 for years of 2070-2099 Producer defined RCP85M RCP 8.5 for years of 2040-2069 Producer defined GS ScienceBase U.S. Geological Survey mailing address

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Denver CO 80225 United States 1-888-275-8747 sciencebase@usgs.gov Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data for other purposes, nor on all computer systems, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. Digital Data https://doi.org/10.5066/P13FFXWV None 20250110 Adam Terando Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center Ecologist mailing

NC State University

Raleigh NC 27695 US 919-515-4448 aterando@usgs.gov FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata FGDC-STD-001-1998