Laura G. Labriola John H. Ellis Subhrendu Gangopadhyay 20240923 groundwater model Denver Colo. U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/P9XFE87Q Laura G. Labriola John H. Ellis Subhrendu Gangopadhyay Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstetter Yang Hong 2024 Publication Scientific Investigations Report 2024-5082 Reston, Virginia U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082 A previously calibrated MODFLOW-NWT groundwater-flow model (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20205118) was used to determine the effects of climate variability under a range of future climatic conditions on groundwater resources in the reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer in western Oklahoma. The study area focuses on reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer; the entire Washita River alluvial aquifer consists of four administrative sections, or reaches, that are designated as reaches 1–4 by the Oklahoma Water Resources Board (OWRB, 2012). To approximate a range in future base-flow conditions in reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and base-flow into Foss Reservoir, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Global Climate Model climate data were downscaled to watershed scale using monthly Bias-Correction Spatial Disaggregation techniques. A time series of scaling factors was developed and spatially interpolated for three climate scenarios (central tendency, warmer/drier, and less warm-wetter) representing a range of future climate conditions for the period 2050–2079. These scaling factors were then applied to an existing soil-water-balance model (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20205118) with climate data for the baseline period 1985–2014 to produce recharge and evapotranspiration estimations for this future period. The downscaled climate data were applied to the groundwater-flow model of the reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer using MODFLOW-NWT. This data release contains the input and output files for the scenarios described in the associated model documentation report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082). A previously published groundwater-flow model described in U.S Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2020-5118 (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20205118) was modified to include the climate variability produced by downscaled climate projections in the reach 1 of the Washita River alluvial aquifer and to simulate changes in groundwater budgets and evaluate the effects of base-flow change on storage in Foss Reservoir, western Oklahoma. The development of the models and output files included in this data release are described in the associated model documentation report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082). Support is provided for correcting errors in the data release and clarification of the modeling conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. Users are encouraged to review the model documentation reports (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20205118 and https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082) to understand the purpose, construction, and limitations of these models. The model archive is divided into 6 zipped directories to reduce the likelihood of download timeouts. The models in this data release will run successfully only if the original directory structure is correctly restored. Instructions for reconstructing the original directory structure and running the models included in this data release and described in the model documentation report can be found in the readme.txt ASCII text file which can be downloaded as part of this data release. Files in this data release include: -readme.txt: This ASCII text file describes the model data release. This file also includes instructions on how to run the models contained in this data release. -modelgeoref.txt: This ASCII text file defines the four corners of the model domain in decimal degrees. Model data files are in a custom Albers Equal-Area projection with units of feet. -ancillary.zip: This ZIP file contains ancillary data files that may aid in the interpretation of model results. The ancillary data files include inputs and outputs for the Soil-Water-Balance model. -bin.zip: This ZIP file contains the compiled executable codes used to run all simulation scenarios documented in the report. The compiled executable codes include MODFLOW-NWT 1.2.0, SWB 1.0.1, and Zonebudget 3.01. -georef.zip: This ZIP file contains a polygon shapefile showing the active and inactive areas of the model domain. -model.zip: This ZIP file contains input, control, and batch (run) files for the calibrated baseline model and model scenarios (central tendency, warmer/drier, less-warm/wetter) and common files used by all models (externalfiles). Detailed information about these scenarios is provided in the model documentation report. -output.zip: This ZIP file contains output files for the calibrated baseline model and model scenarios (central tendency, warmer/drier, less-warm/wetter). Detailed information about these scenarios is provided in the model documentation report. -source.zip: This ZIP file contains standard model source codes and associated files for MODFLOW-NWT 1.1.4, SWB 1.0.1, and Zonebudget 3.01. 19800101 20151231 publication date Complete None planned -100.014209 -98.896988 35.815139 35.417357 USGS Thesaurus mathematical modeling groundwater and surface-water interaction groundwater groundwater flow none usgsgroundwatermodel MODFLOW-NWT Soil Water Balance climate projections Global Climate Model USGS Metadata Identifier USGS:62fbb4aad34e25bd09288663 Geographic Names Information System (GNIS) Roger Mills County Custer County Oklahoma none Washita River alluvial aquifer None. Acknowledgement of the U.S. Geological Survey would be appreciated in products derived from this data release. Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data for other purposes, nor on all computer systems, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. Although these data have been processed successfully on a computer system at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data for other purposes, nor on all computer systems, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. The USGS or the U.S. Government shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described and/or contained herein. These groundwater model input and output files are provided to support the analyses documented in the associated report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082). Although the information contained in the model files may be useful for other purposes, it is incumbent on the user to understand the purpose, construction, and limitations of this model. Data have been checked to ensure consistency with the accompanying report. If any errors are detected, please notify the originating office. Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center Public Information Officer U.S. Geological Survey Oklahoma-Texas Water Science Center mailing and physical

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Austin TX 78754 US 512-927-3500 otpublicinfo@usgs.gov The collection and analysis of these data were funded by the Bureau of Reclamation. None Unclassified None John H. Ellis Derek W. Ryter Leland T. Fuhrig Kyle W. Spears Shana L. Mashburn Ian M.J. Rogers 2020 Publication Scientific Investigations Report 2020–5118 Reston, Va. U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20205118 John H. Ellis 2020 groundwater model U.S. Geological Survey data release 1 Reston, Va. U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PKMG6U Richard G. Niswonger Sorab Panday Motomu Ibaraki 2011 Publication Techniques and Methods 6-A37 Reston, Va. U.S. Geological Survey Detailed descriptions of the model input and output files included in this data release can be found in this code documentation report. https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A37 Arlen W. Harbaugh 1990 Publication Open-File Report 90-392 Reston, Va. U.S. Geological Survey Detailed descriptions of the ZONEBUDGET model budget input and output files included in this data release can be found in this documentation report. https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr90392 S.M. Westenbroek V.A. Kelson W.R. Dripps R.J. Hunt K.R. Bradbury 2010 Publication Techniques and Methods 6-A31 Reston, Va. U.S. Geological Survey Detailed descriptions of the SWB input and output files included in this data release can be found in this code documentation report. https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A31 The previously-published numerical groundwater-flow model (https://doi.org/10.5066/P9PKMG6U) was calibrated to 168 groundwater-level observations at selected wells, 1,684 monthly estimates of base-flow measurements at selected streamgages, 1 net streambed seepage value as estimated for the conceptual model, and 433 Foss Reservoir stage observations. More information on the model calibration can be found in the associated report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20205118). No additional calibration was done for this study. No formal logical accuracy tests were conducted. Dataset is considered complete for the information presented, as described in the abstract. Users are advised to read the metadata record and the associated model documentation reports for this data release (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20205118 and https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082) for additional details. No formal positional accuracy tests were conducted No formal positional accuracy tests were conducted The process used to develop, calibrate, and apply the groundwater flow model is fully described in the model documentation reports (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20205118 and https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082). 2024 Raster Pixel Albers Conical Equal Area 29.5 45.5 -96.0 23.0 0.0 0.0 row and column 350 350 feet North American Vertical Datum of 1988 1.0 feet Attribute values SIR2024_5082.shp ESRI Polygon shapefile U.S. Geological Survey Area Text string indicating if polygon area is active or inactive in the model. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082 usgsgroundwatermodel Delineation of active and inactive areas in the model. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082 This model application data release contains all the model input and output files needed to replicate the simulations described in the associated model documentation report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082). https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20245082 Detailed descriptions of the model input and output files can be found in the MODFLOW-NWT model documentation (https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A37) and online at: https://water.usgs.gov/nrp/gwsoftware/modflow2000/MFDOC/index.html accessed August 1, 2022. https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A37 Detailed descriptions of the model budget output files included in this data release can be found in the ZONEBUDGET documentation report (https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr90392) accessed June 5, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr90392 Detailed descriptions of the soil-water-balance code input and output files can be found in the SWB code documentation report (https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A31) accessed June 5, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3133/tm6A31 GS ScienceBase U.S. Geological Survey mailing and physical

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Denver CO 80225 USA 1-888-275-8747 sciencebase@usgs.gov Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although the data, software, and related material have been processed successfully on a computer system at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), reviewed for accuracy and completeness, and approved for release by the USGS, no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data for other purposes, nor on all computer systems, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. Although the data have been subjected to rigorous review and are substantially complete, the USGS reserves the right to revise the data pursuant to further analysis and review. Furthermore, the data are released on the condition that neither the USGS nor the U.S. Government shall be held liable for any damages resulting from authorized or unauthorized use. The USGS or the U.S. Government shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described and/or contained herein. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Digital datasets None 2636 https://doi.org/10.5066/P9XFE87Q None. No fees are applicable for obtaining the dataset. 20240923 Laura G. Labriola U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologist mailing and physical

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Austin TX 78754 USA 405-693-9732 llabriola@usgs.gov FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata FGDC-STD-001-1998