Laura A. Brandt Allison M. Benscoter Rebecca Harvey Carolina Speroterra David Bucklin Stephanie S. Romañach James I. Watling Frank J. Mazzotti 2017 Tabular Digital Data https://doi.org/10.5066/F7J101BT Laura A. Brandt Allison M. Benscoter Rebecca Harvey Carolina Speroterra David Bucklin Stephanie S. Romañach James I. Watling Frank J. Mazzotti 2017 Publication (Journal) Ecological Modelling 345 The data we used for this study include species occurrence data (n=15 species), climate data and predictions, an expert opinion questionnaire, and species masks that represented the model domain for each species. For this data release, we include the results of the expert opinion questionnaire and the species model domains (or masks). We developed an expert opinion questionnaire to gather information regarding expert opinion regarding the importance of climate variables in determining a species geographic range. The species masks, or model domains, were defined separately for each species using a variation of the “target-group” approach (Phillips et al. 2009), where the domain was determine using convex polygons including occurrence data for at least three phylogenetically related and similar species (Watling et al. 2012). The species occurrence data, climate data, and climate predictions are freely available online, and therefore not included in this data release. The species occurrence data were obtained primarily from the online database Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; http://www.gbif.org/), and from scientific literature (Watling et al. 2011). Climate data were obtained from the WorldClim database (Hijmans et al. 2005) and climate predictions were obtained from the Center for Ocean-Atmosphere Prediction Studies (COAPS) at Florida State University (https://floridaclimateinstitute.org/resources/data-sets/regional-downscaling). See metadata for references. The data were collected as part of a larger project to compare climate envelope models outputs that were generated using two types of predictor variables: expert opinion and statistical method. Climate envelope models are increasingly used to characterize potential future distribution of species under climate change scenarios. It is acknowledged that the use of climate envelope models comes with both strengths and limitations, and that results are sensitive to modeling assumptions, inputs, and specific methods. The selection of predictor variables, an integral modeling step, is one factor that can affect the modeling outcome. The selection of climate predictors if frequently achieved using statistical methods that ascertain correlations between species occurrence and climate data; this approach has been critiqued because it depends on statistical properties of the data, and does not directly implement biological information about how species respond to temperature or precipitation. In this study, we compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida created using two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance for contemporary predictions, and also compared the spatial correlation, spatial overlap, and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions between these two approaches. 20120301 20130401 observed Complete None planned 0 0 0 0 USGS Thesaurus climate change endangered species Marine Realms Information Bank (MRIB) keywords conservation None conservation planning climate adaptation expert opinion threatened species USGS Metadata Identifier USGS:58540eb7e4b0e2663625f3f1 Common geographic areas Florida None. Please see 'Distribution Info' for details. None. Users are advised to read the data set's metadata thoroughly to understand appropriate use and data limitations. U.S. Geological Survey, SOUTHEAST REGION Allison M Benscoter Ecologist mailing address

3321 College Avenue

Davie FL 33314 US 954-377-5964 abenscoter@usgs.gov Environment as of Metadata Creation: Microsoft Windows 7 Version 6.1 (Build 7601) Service Pack 1; Esri ArcGIS 10.3.1 (Build 4959) Service Pack N/A (Build N/A) Brandt, L.A. Benscoter, A.M. Harvey, R. Speroterra, C. Bucklin, D. Romanach, S.S. Watling, J.I. Mazzotti, F.J. 2017 Unknown Ecological Modelling Hijmans, R.J. Cameron, S.E. Parra, J.L. Jones, P.G. Jarvis, A. 2005 Unknown International Journal of Climatology Phillips, S.J. Dudik, M. Elith, J. Graham, C.M. Lehmann, A. Leathwick, J. Ferrier, S. 2009 Unknown Ecological Applications Watling, J.I. Brandt, L.A. Benscoter, A. Bucklin, D. Pifer, E. Cabal, C. Escribano, Y. Mazzotti, F.J. Romanach, S.S. 2011 Davie, FL Fort Lauderdale Research and Education Center, University of Florida Watling, J.I. Brandt, L.A. Mazzotti, F.J. Romanach, S.S. 2012 Davie, FL University of Florida Experts were asked to provide confidence values associated with the climate data they thought were most important in determining a species range. All data were reviewed for quality control and assurance. Data set is considered complete for the information presented, as described in the abstract. Users are advised to read the rest of the metadata record carefully for additional details. A formal accuracy assessment of the horizontal positional information in the data set has not been conducted. A formal accuracy assessment of the vertical positional information in the data set has either not been conducted, or is not applicable. Development of the data set by the agency / individuals identified in the 'Originator' element in the Identification Info section of the record. Unknown The datasets and metadata for the expert opinion questionnaire and the target group masks for climate envelope models are found in the associated child items of this resource. The entity and attribute information was generated by the individual and/or agency identified as the originator of the data set. Please review the rest of the metadata record for additional details and information. ScienceBase U.S. Geological Survey mailing and physical

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Denver Colorado 80225 United States 1-888-ASK-USGS sciencebase@usgs.gov Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. Tabular Digital Data https://doi.org/10.5066/F7J101BT None 20200830 Allison M Benscoter U.S. Geological Survey, SOUTHEAST REGION Ecologist mailing address

3321 College Avenue

Davie FL 33314 US 954-377-5964 abenscoter@usgs.gov FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata FGDC-STD-001-1998