Richard Erickson 20160511 Tabular Digital Data https://doi.org/10.5066/F75M63TN Erickson, Richard Thogmartin, Wayne Diffendorfer, Jay Russell, Robin Szymanski, Jennifer Publication (Journal) Environmental Research Letters Bristol, UK IOP Publishing Our model is a full-annual-cycle population model {hostetler2015full} that tracks groups of bat surviving through four seasons: breeding season/summer, fall migration, non-breeding/winter, and spring migration. Our state variables are groups of bats that use a specific maternity colony/breeding site and hibernaculum/non-breeding site. Bats are also accounted for by life stages (juveniles/first-year breeders versus adults) and seasonal habitats (breeding versus non-breeding) during each year, This leads to four states variable (here depicted in vector notation): the population of juveniles during the non-breeding season, the population of adults during the non-breeding season, the population of juveniles during the breeding season, and the population of adults during the breeding season, Each vector's elements depict a specific migratory pathway, e.g., is comprised of elements, {non-breeding sites}, {breeding sites}The variables may be summed by either breeding site or non-breeding site to calculate the total population using a specific geographic location. Within our code, we account for this using an index column for breeding sites and an index column for non-breeding sides within the data table. Our choice of state variables caused the time step (i.e. \(t\)) to be 1 year. However, we recorded the population of each group during the breeding and non-breeding season as an artifact of our state-variable choice. We choose these state variables partially for their biological information and partially to simplify programming. We ran our simulation for 30 years because the USFWS currently issues Indiana Bat take permits for 30 years. Our model covers the range of the Indiana Bat, which is approximately the eastern half of the contiguous United States (Figure \ref{fig:BatInput}). The boundaries of our range was based upon the United States boundary, the NatureServe Range map, and observations of the species. The maximum migration distance was 500-km, which was based upon field observations reported in the literature \citep{gardner2002seasonal, winhold2006aspects}. The landscape was covered with approximately 33,000, 6475-ha grid cells and the grid size was based upon management considerations. The U.S.~Fish and Wildlife Service considers a 2.5 mile radius around a known maternity colony to be its summer habitat range and all of the hibernaculum within a 2.5 miles radius to be a single management unit. Hence the choice of 5-by-5 square grids (25 miles\(^2\) or 6475 ha). Each group of bats within the model has a summer and winter grid cell as well as a pathway connecting the cells. It is possible for a group to be in the cell for both seasons, but improbable for females (which we modeled). The straight line between summer and winter cells were buffered with different distances (1-km, 2-km, 10-km, 20-km, 100-km, and 200-km) as part of the turbine sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. We dropped the largest two buffer sizes during the model development processes because they were biologically unrealistic and including them caused all populations to go extinct all of the time. Note a 1-km buffer would be a 2-km wide path. An example of two pathways are included in Figure \ref{fig:BatPath}. The buffers accounts for bats not migrating in a straight line. If we had precise locations for all summer maternity colonies, other approaches such as Circuitscape \citep{hanks2013circuit} could have been used to model migration routes and this would have reduced migration uncertainty. We applied a model developed by {Taylor:2010} and \citet{Erickson:2014} to understand how wind energy development would affect the Indiana Bat. The model is a network model consisting of summer nodes (maternity breeding sites) and winter nodes (hibernacula) connected by paths (migration routes). The model is also based upon the stage-structured Indiana Bat model developed by {Thogmartin:2012a}. The model differs from {Taylor:2010} and {Erickson:2014} by two important attributes. First, this model does not include density dependence within the hibernacula because Indiana Bats historically occurred at much greater densities than present levels (pre-European colonization abundances were at least one and likely more orders of magnitude greater than current population sizes). Second, this model does not include migration survival as a function of distance because our model is focused on the Indiana bat, which forages as it migrates as opposed to an avian species that does not forage as it migrates except at stopover sites. The model also differs from {Taylor:2010} because it does not include arrival order within the model. {Taylor:2010} included arrival order because it describes avian populations where the first migrants returning get the best nest sites, but cave bats live in colonies without fixed individual territories. Our model also differs from {Erickson:2014} because we apply the model to an actual (versus theoretical) landscape. Briefly, our modeling efforts consists of the following steps: 1) Parameterizing an occurrence model using ArcPy and other Python modules to manipulate data and RStan to parameterize the model, 2) Generating of a landscape by connecting hibernacula with summer sites, 3) Simulating the population over 30 years with different turbine mortality and WNS scenarios, and 4) Repeating steps 3 and 4 for 1,000 landscapes. The next section of our manuscript outlines our model using the ``Overview, Design concepts, and Details'' (ODD) protocol \citep{grimm2006standard, grimm2010odd}. Although our model is not an Agent Based Model (ABM), the ODD protocol provides a useful framework for documenting our population-level model. Our model does not contain any emergence behavior. Our model does not include any adaptive behavior. We do not have an adaptive trait with objectives in the current version of the model. No bat learning occurs within our model. There is no internal predicting that occurs as part of this model. There is no sensing within the model. Density at the maternity colonies (summer nodes) is included within the model and decreases survival as population size increases. Different landscapes are generated, which affects exposure to wind turbines. The demographic parameters are constant because previous work with the model demonstrated that parameter variability has a minimal effect on the dynamics {erickson2014battool}. This observation is also an artifact of the life history of the Indiana Bat. The bat is a long-lived species that only produces 1 pup per year, which limits the parameter possible demographic parameter space. ground condition Complete None planned None population matrix model white nose syndrome USGS Thesaurus bats ISO 19115 Topic Category environment biota USGS Metadata Identifier USGS:581e0df3e4b0dee4cc986c59 Common geographic areas United States None Indiana None None U.S. Geological Survey, Midwest Region Richard A Erickson Quantitative Ecologist mailing address

2630 Fanta Reed Road

La Crosse WI 54603 608-781-6353 rerickson@usgs.gov Environment as of Metadata Creation: Microsoft Windows 7 Version 6.1 (Build 7601) Service Pack 1; Esri ArcGIS 10.3.1 (Build 4959) Service Pack N/A (Build N/A) No formal attribute accuracy tests were conducted. No formal logical accuracy tests were conducted. Multiple data sources were used for our habitat model for both the predictor and response variables. We had observations of the Indiana bat from three sources for maternity roost sites and the census data for the hibernacula (Figure \ref{fig:BatInput}). Our hibernacula data came from the USFWS and is a private data set because hibernacula locations are confidential. We used the hibernacula location data to calculate the total number of hibernacula per grid cell and total population found in a grid cell. We used the maximum observed population over the last 3 years of data to calculate the population size. We choose three years because most hibernacula were sampled ever-other year prior to the arrival of WNS, but some were sampled less frequently. Additionally, most sampling was halted post-WNS in order to limit accidental spread of the disease. We had banding data from previous banding efforts from the US Fish and Wildlife Service. The banding data comes from a wide variety of sources including academic researchers and a national bat banding project. Additional banding data exists, but has yet to be digitized \citep{Ellison:2008}. The national bat banding project existed from the 1930s-1970s until the program was halted due to a high banding mortality \citep{Ellison:2008}. We also used observation data from the Biodiversity Information Serving Our Nation database (BISON; \url{bison.usgs.ornl.gov}). This database aggregates primarily museum records from across the United States. For the BISON data, we only included female observations from the summer (June and July). We also excluded an observation from Florida because the population there has been extirpated, the sample was an accidental occurrence, or the sample was misidentified (\url{http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/14136/0}). We also excluded any data points from Wisconsin because the Indiana Bat has not been observed in the state since 1960 (WI DNR; \url{http://dnr.wi.gov/topic/EndangeredResources/Animals.asp?mode=detail&SpecCode=AMACC01100}) and the single observation may have actually been a mistaken sample identification \citep{jackson1961mammals}. We also used observations from \citet{clark1987summer}. This data helped us by extending the species range in western Iowa on the northwestern edge of the species' range. All three data sets were aggregated and the presence for each data cell was tabulated. A formal accuracy assessment of the horizontal positional information in the data set has not been conducted. A formal accuracy assessment of the vertical positional information in the data set has either not been conducted, or is not applicable. Digital and/or Hardcopy Resources Source Input 1 Source information used in support of the development of the data set. Digital and/or Hardcopy Resources Source Input 2 Source information used in support of the development of the data set. Digital and/or Hardcopy Resources Source Input 3 Source information used in support of the development of the data set. Digital and/or Hardcopy Resources Source Input 4 Source information used in support of the development of the data set. Digital and/or Hardcopy Resources Source Input 5 Source information used in support of the development of the data set. Digital and/or Hardcopy Resources Source Input 6 Source information used in support of the development of the data set. Digital and/or Hardcopy Resources Source Input 7 Source information used in support of the development of the data set. Digital and/or Hardcopy Resources Source Input 8 Source information used in support of the development of the data set. Development of the data set by the agency / individuals identified in the 'Originator' element in the Identification Info section of the record. Unknown Population in summer habitat Attribute Table Table containing attribute information associated with the data set. Producer defined Summary_ID Summary IDs Producer defined 2 29 Buffer Buffer distance Producer defined a None Producer defined c 2 km Producer defined Buffer_Desc Description of buffer distance Producer defined 2 km 2 kilmoter buffer used Producer defined None No buffer used Producer defined Take Collision risk uncertainty Producer defined a Reference Producer defined b Low Producer defined c Medium Producer defined d High Producer defined Take_Desc Description of Collision risk uncertainty Producer defined High 1 out of 10 bats flying by a turbine are killed Producer defined Low 1 out of 1000 bats flying by a turbine are killed Producer defined Medium 1 out of 100 bats flying by a turbine are killed Producer defined Reference Reference Producer defined Exposure Exposure uncertainty Producer defined a MigratoryOnly Producer defined b Both Producer defined Exposure_desc Description of Exposure uncertainty Producer defined Both Both maternity/hibernacula and migratory paths Producer defined Migratoryonly Only along migratory paths Producer defined WNS White Nose Syndrome Uncertainty Producer defined The data are based upon histological data on bats and molecular confirmation of Pseudogymnoascus destuctans the fungus causing white nose syndrome L95 lower 95th percentile population Producer defined 0 2488 Med Median population Producer defined 0 2527 U95 Upper 95th percentile population Producer defined 0 2564 Population in winter habitat Attribute Table Table containing attribute information associated with the data set. Producer defined Summary_ID Summary IDs Producer defined 2 29 Buffer Buffer distance Producer defined a None Producer defined a Unknown Producer defined c 2 km Producer defined c Unknown Producer defined Buffer_Desc Description of buffer distance Producer defined 2 km 2 kilmoter buffer used Producer defined None No buffer used Producer defined Take Collision risk uncertainty Producer defined a Reference Producer defined b Low Producer defined c Medium Producer defined d High Producer defined Take_Desc Description of Collision risk uncertainty Producer defined High 1 out of 10 bats flying by a turbine are killed Producer defined Low 1 out of 1000 bats flying by a turbine are killed Producer defined Medium 1 out of 100 bats flying by a turbine are killed Producer defined Reference Reference Producer defined Exposure Exposure uncertainty Producer defined a MigratoryOnly Producer defined b Both Producer defined Exposure_Desc Description of Exposure uncertainty Producer defined Both Both maternity/hibernacula and migratory paths Producer defined Migratoryonly Only migratry paths Producer defined WNS White Nose Syndrome Uncertainty Producer defined The data are based upon histological data on bats and molecular confirmation of Pseudogmnoascus destrctans the fungus that causes WNS L95 lower 95th percentile population Producer defined 0 136 Med Median population Producer defined 0 141 U95 Upper 95th percentile population Producer defined 0 145 Summary of path population sizes Attribute Table Table containing attribute information associated with the data set. Producer defined Summary_ID Summary IDs Producer defined 2 29 Buffer Buffer distance Producer defined a None Producer defined c 2km Producer defined Buffer_Desc Description of buffer distance Producer defined 2 km 2 kilmoter buffer used Producer defined None No buffer used Producer defined Take Collision risk uncertainty Producer defined a Reference Producer defined b Low Producer defined c Medium Producer defined d High Producer defined Take_Desc Description of Collision risk uncertainty Producer defined High 1 out of 10 bats flying by a turbine are killed Producer defined Low 1 out of 1000 bats flying by a turbine are killed Producer defined Medium 1 out of 100 bats flying by a turbine are killed Producer defined Reference Reference Producer defined Exposure Exposure uncertainty Producer defined a MigratoryOnly Producer defined b Both Producer defined Exposure_Desc Description of Exposure uncertainty Producer defined Both Both maternity/hibernacula and migratory paths Producer defined Migratoryonly Only migratry paths Producer defined WNS White Nose Syndrome Uncertainty Producer defined The data are based upon histological data on bats and molecular confirmation of Pseudogmnoascus destrctans the fungus that causes WNS L95 lower 95th percentile population Producer defined 0 3343 Med Median population Producer defined 0 3348 U95 Upper 95th percentile population Producer defined 0 3352 Summary of total population by year Attribute Table Table containing attribute information associated with the data set. Producer defined Year Sample Year Producer defined 0 31 Buffer Buffer distance Producer defined a None Producer defined c 2km Producer defined Buffer_Desc Description of buffer distance Producer defined 2 km 2 kilometer buffer used Producer defined None No buffer used Producer defined Take Collision risk uncertainty Producer defined a Reference Producer defined b Low Producer defined c Medium Producer defined d High Producer defined Take_Desc Description of Collision risk uncertainty Producer defined High 1 out of 10 bats flying by a turbine are killed Producer defined Low 1 out of 1000 bats flying by a turbine are killed Producer defined Medium 1 out of 100 bats flying by a turbine are killed Producer defined Reference Reference Producer defined Exposure Exposure uncertainty Producer defined a MigratoryOnly Producer defined b Both Producer defined Exposure_Desc Description of Exposure uncertainty Producer defined Both Both maternity/hibernacula and migratory paths Producer defined Migratory only Only along migratory path Producer defined WNS White Nose Syndrome Uncertainty Producer defined The data are based upon histological data on bats and molecular confirmation of Psedogymnoascus destructans, the fungus that causes WNS L95 lower 95th percentile population Producer defined 8424.3 244837.51 Med Median population Producer defined 8523.23 247539.02 U95 Upper 95th percentile population Producer defined 8610.23 250826.08 The entity and attribute information provided here describes the tabular data associated with the data set. Please review the detailed descriptions that are provided (the individual attribute descriptions) for information on the values that appear as fields/table entries of the data set. The entity and attribute information was generated by the individual and/or agency identified as the originator of the data set. Please review the rest of the metadata record for additional details and information. U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase mailing and physical

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Denver CO 80225 USA 1-888-275-8747 sciencebase@usgs.gov Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data on any other system or for general or scientific purposes, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. Tabular Digital Data None. No fees are applicable for obtaining the data set. 20220518 Richard A Erickson U.S. Geological Survey, Midwest Region Quantitative Ecologist mailing address

2630 Fanta Reed Road

La Crosse WI 54603 608-781-6353 rerickson@usgs.gov FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata FGDC-STD-001-1998