Kristin Byrd, U.S. Geological Survey 2016 Tabular Digital Data http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F76M34Z1 Kristin B. Byrd Lisamarie Windham-Myers Thomas Leeuw Bryan Downing James T. Morris Matthew C. Ferner in press Publication (Journal) Ecosphere xx xx Ecological Society of America Reducing uncertainty in data inputs at relevant spatial scales can improve tidal marsh forecasting models, and their usefulness in coastal climate change adaptation decisions. The Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM), a one-dimensional mechanistic elevation model, incorporates feedbacks of organic and inorganic inputs to project elevations under sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. We tested the feasibility of deriving two key MEM inputs – average annual suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and aboveground peak biomass – from remote sensing data in order to apply MEM across a broader geographic region. We analyzed the precision and representativeness (spatial distribution) of these remote sensing inputs to improve understanding of our study region, a brackish tidal marsh in San Francisco Bay, and to test the applicable spatial extent for coastal modeling. We compared biomass and SSC models derived from Landsat 8, Digital Globe World View-2 and hyperspectral airborne imagery. Landsat 8-derived inputs were evaluated in a MEM sensitivity analysis. Trend response surface analysis identified significant diversion (P < 0.05) between field and remote sensing-based model runs at 60 years due to model sensitivity at the marsh edge (80 – 140 cm NAVD88), though at 100 years, elevation forecasts differed less than 10 cm across 97% of the marsh surface (150 – 200 cm NAVD88). Results demonstrate the utility of Landsat 8 for landscape scale tidal marsh elevation projections due to its comparable performance with the other sensors, temporal frequency and cost. Integration of remote sensing data with MEM should advance regional projections of marsh vegetation change by better parameterizing MEM inputs spatially. Improving information for coastal modeling will support planning for ecosystem services, including habitat, carbon storage and flood protection. Table 1. shows difference in Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM) elevation projections derived from field measured inputs and Landsat 8-based inputs by year and starting elevation (centimeters NAVD88). Table 2. shows difference in Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM) elevation projections derived from two model runs: one using remote sensing estimates of peak biomass and/or suspended sediment concentration, plus or minus model RMSE, and one using the remote sensing estimates of these two variables. Model outpus are provided by year and starting elevation (centimeters NAVD88). Model outputs serve to test the feasibility of running MEM with remote sensing data, and to understand the sensitivity of MEM to variations in two key input values, suspended sediment concentrations and peak biomass. 20160717 publication date Complete None planned ISO 19115 Topic Category elevation USGS Metadata Identifier USGS:574f3749e4b0ee97d51abef6 Common geographic areas California None. Please see 'Distribution Info' for details. None. Users are advised to read the data set's metadata thoroughly to understand appropriate use and data limitations. U.S. Geological Survey, PACIFIC REGION Kristin B Byrd Research Physical Scientist mailing address

Mail Stop 531, 345 Middlefield Road

Menlo Park CA 94025 650-329-4279 650-329-4722 kbyrd@usgs.gov Environment as of Metadata Creation: Microsoft Windows 7 Version 6.1 (Build 7601) Service Pack 1; Esri ArcGIS 10.2.2 (Build 3552) Service Pack N/A (Build N/A) Because data represents model outputs, they cannot be compared to true values. However in compiling this dataset of multiple model outputs, we did a systematic check of values against individual model output values in original model output files. Data on year and elevation adequately match variable descriptions. Values fall within expected ranges for each variable. We have checked for data duplication and omission. Data set is considered complete for the information presented, as described in the abstract. Users are advised to read the rest of the metadata record carefully for additional details. Data are not spatial and so horizontal accuracy is not applicable. A formal accuracy assessment of the vertical positional information in the data set has either not been conducted, or is not applicable. Lisa Schile 20140213 Publication (Journal Article) online Plos One http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088760 Digital and/or Hardcopy Resources 20110101 20140213 publication date Source Input 1 Source information used in support of the development of the data set. We tested the integration of the Landsat 8 based inputs of peak biomass and annual average SSC with MEM 3.76 (Morris et al. 2002) and a vegetation distribution model presented in Schile et al. (2014) that defines elevation ranges for four plant communities. Other input parameters came from Schile et al. (2014) (Table 3). MEM was run at elevations between 0 and 300 cm NAVD88 in 10 cm increments, with projected SLR reaching 1 meter after 100 years, a moderate SLR projection evaluated by Schile et al. (2014). Outputs were mean sea level, marsh elevation and biomass at yearly time steps from 1 to 100 years. We tested two types of feasibility regarding MEM performance. We compared model outputs derived from remotely sensed inputs of peak biomass and annual average SSC and field measured inputs provided by Schile et al. (2014) and Ferner et al. (in press) to assess model sensitivity to the differences between the two. Also, given uncertainties in remote sensing measures, we tested how sensitive the model was to error associated with remote sensing inputs. Model outputs were tested for 80-200 cm (marsh edge to upland) initial elevations at 10 cm intervals, at a single magnitude of SLR (100 cm by 2100). The scenarios tested (Table 4) were thus not based on variable SLR but instead on different initial conditions (inputs) for peak biomass and SSC. Development of the data set by the agency / individuals identified in the 'Originator' element in the Identification Info section of the record. 20160717 Attribute Table Table 1. Marsh Equilibrium Model output comparisons between model runs using field derived and remote sensing derived data sources Producer defined ModelRun Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM) Run Table 4., in Byrd et al. 2016. Ecosphere 30_2040 MEM run with remote sensing values for suspended sediment concentration and peak biomass Table 4., in Byrd et al. 2016. Ecosphere 30_2400 MEM run with remote sensing value for suspended sediment concentration and field value for peak biomass Table 4., in Byrd et al. 2016. Ecosphere 37_2040 MEM run with remote field value for suspended sediment concentration and remote sensing value for peak biomass Table 4., in Byrd et al. 2016. Ecosphere Elevation Starting marsh elevation (cm) at year 1 of MEM run Byrd et al. 2016, Ecosphere 0 300 centimeter y1_F MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 1 for model using all field derived inputs Byrd et al. 2016, Ecosphere 0 300 centimeter y10_F MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 10 for model using all field derived inputs Producer defined 21.546 300 y20_F MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 20 for model using all field derived inputs Producer defined 53.588 300 y30_F MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 30 for model using all field derived inputs Producer defined 77.348 300 y40_F MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 40 for model using all field derived inputs Producer defined 96.171 300 y50_F MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 50 for model using all field derived inputs Producer defined 112.791 300 y60_F MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 60 for model using all field derived inputs Producer defined 130.417 300 y70_F MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 70 for model using all field derived inputs Producer defined 147.76 300 y80_F MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 80 for model using all field derived inputs Producer defined 169.441 300 y90_F MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 90 for model using all field derived inputs Producer defined 191.059 300 y100_F MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 100 for model using all field derived inputs Producer defined 213.268889 300 y1_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 1 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Byrd et al. 2016, Ecosphere 0 300 centimeters y10_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 10 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 17.744 300 y20_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 20 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 45.54 300 y30_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 30 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 67.331 300 y40_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 40 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 85.225 300 y50_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 50 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 100.901 300 y60_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 60 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 115.107 300 y70_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 70 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 128.773 300 y80_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 80 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 142.565 300 y90_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 90 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 156.044 300 y100_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 100 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 169.206667 300 y1_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 1 between model run using all field derived inputs and model defined in "ModelRun" field Byrd et al. 2016, Ecosphere 0 0 centimeters y10_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 10 between model run using all field derived inputs and model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined -2.049 3.802 y20_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 20 between model run using all field derived inputs and model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined -1.782 13.652 y30_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 30 between model run using all field derived inputs and model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined -0.983 22.157 y40_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 40 between model run using all field derived inputs and model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined -0.262 29.785 y50_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 50 between model run using all field derived inputs and model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined -0.1 37.209 y60_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 60 between model run using all field derived inputs and model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 0 43.216 y70_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 70 between model run using all field derived inputs and model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 0 46.796 y80_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 80 between model run using all field derived inputs and model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 0 50.776 y90_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 90 between model run using all field derived inputs and model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 0 50.978 y100_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 100 between model run using all field derived inputs and model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 0 52.565556 Attribute Table Table 2. Marsh Equilibrium Model output comparisons between model runs using remote sensing derived data sources and error associated with remote sensing models Producer defined ModelRun Marsh Equilibrium Model (MEM) Run Table 4., in Byrd et al. 2016. Ecosphere BM+2366 Model Run using +RMSE remote sensing derived peak biomass (+326 g/m2) Producer defined BM+SSC+ Model run using +RMSE remote sensing derived peak biomass and +RMSE remote sensing derived suspended sediment concentration Producer defined BM+SSC- Model run using +RMSE remote sensing derived peak biomass and -RMSE remote sensing derived suspended sediment concentration Producer defined BM-1714 Model Run using -RMSE remote sensing derived peak biomass (-326 g/m2) Producer defined BM-SSC+ Model run using -RMSE remote sensing derived peak biomass and +RMSE suspended sediment concentration Producer defined BM-SSC- Model run using -RMSE remote sensing derived peak biomass and -RMSE suspended sediment concentration Producer defined SSC+33.38 Model Run using +RMSE remote sensing derived suspended sediment concentration (+3.38 g/mL) Producer defined SSC-26.62 Model Run using -RMSE remote sensing derived suspended sediment concentration (-3.38 g/mL) Producer defined Elevation Starting marsh elevation (cm) at year 1 of MEM run Byrd et al. 2016, Ecosphere Unknown y1_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 1 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Byrd et al. 2016, Ecosphere 0 300 centimeters y10_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 10 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 15.853 300 centimeters y20_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 20 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 41.337 300 centimeters y30_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 30 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 61.918 300 centimeters y40_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 40 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 79.164 300 centimeters y50_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 50 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 94.463 300 centimeters y60_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 60 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 108.44 300 centimeters y70_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 70 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 121.902 300 centimeters y80_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 80 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 135.021 300 centimeters y90_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 90 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 148.408 300 centimeters y100_M MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 100 for model defined in "ModelRun" field Producer defined 161.366667 300 centimeters y1_R MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 1 for model run using remote sensing derived inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined 0 300 centimeters y10_R MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 10 for model run using remote sensing derived inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined 17.744 300 centimeters y20_R MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 20 for model run using remote sensing derived inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined 45.54 300 centimeters y30_R MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 30 for model run using remote sensing derived inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined 67.331 300 centimeters y40_R MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 40 for model run using remote sensing derived inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined 85.225 300 centimeters y50_R MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 50 for model run using remote sensing derived inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined 100.901 300 centimeters y60_R MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 60 for model run using remote sensing derived inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined 115.107 300 centimeters y70_R MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 70 for model run using remote sensing derived inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined 128.773 300 centimeters y80_R MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 80 for model run using remote sensing derived inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined 142.565 300 centimeters y90_R MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 90 for model run using remote sensing derived inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined 156.044 300 centimeters y100_R MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 100 for model run using remote sensing derived inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined 169.206667 300 centimeters y1_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 1 between model defined in "Model Run" field and model using remote sensing inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Byrd et al. 2016, Ecosphere 0 0 centimeters y10_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 10 between model defined in "Model Run" field and model using remote sensing inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined -1.891 2.151 centimeters y20_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 20 between model defined in "Model Run" field and model using remote sensing inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined -8.621 9.512 centimeters y30_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 30 between model defined in "Model Run" field and model using remote sensing inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined -14.622 15.457 centimeters y40_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 40 between model defined in "Model Run" field and model using remote sensing inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined -19.25 19.489 centimeters y50_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 50 between model defined in "Model Run" field and model using remote sensing inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined -21.21 24.096 centimeters y60_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 60 between model defined in "Model Run" field and model using remote sensing inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined -26.539 27.735 centimeters y70_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 70 between model defined in "Model Run" field and model using remote sensing inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined -28.508 33.399 centimeters y80_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 80 between model defined in "Model Run" field and model using remote sensing inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined -30.327 34.844 centimeters y90_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 90 between model defined in "Model Run" field and model using remote sensing inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined -31.917 36.698 centimeters y100_D Difference in MEM output (marsh elevation in centimeters NAVD88) at year 100 between model defined in "Model Run" field and model using remote sensing inputs for peak biomass and suspended sediment concentration Producer defined -38.69 37.274444 centimeters The entity and attribute information provided here describes the tabular data associated with the data set. Please review the detailed descriptions that are provided (the individual attribute descriptions) for information on the values that appear as fields/table entries of the data set. The entity and attribute information was generated by the individual and/or agency identified as the originator of the data set. Please review the rest of the metadata record for additional details and information. U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase mailing address

Denver Federal Center, Building 810, Mail Stop 302

Denver CO 80225 1-888-275-8747 sciencebase@usgs.gov Distributor assumes no liability for misuse of data. Tabular Digital Data http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F76M34Z1 None. No fees are applicable for obtaining the data set. 20200830 Kristin B Byrd U.S. Geological Survey, PACIFIC REGION Research Physical Scientist mailing address

Mail Stop 531, 345 Middlefield Road

Menlo Park CA 94025 650-329-4279 650-329-4722 kbyrd@usgs.gov FGDC Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata FGDC-STD-001-1998