Laura G. Labriola John H. Ellis Tom Pruitt Subhrendu Gangopadhyay 2020 Groundwater model Reston, VA U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/P91DWW91 Laura G. Labriola John H. Ellis Subhrendu Gangopadhyay Tom Pruitt Pierre Kirstsetter Yang Hong 2020 journal article Hydrogeology Journal issue vol Berlin, Germany Springer Science+Business Media http://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02230-x A previously developed model (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175098) was coupled with downscaled climate model data to determine the impact of climate variability on base flow and groundwater storage in the North Fork Red River aquifer, Oklahoma. The North Fork Red River aquifer is an alluvial aquifer that discharges groundwater to the North Fork Red River, which provides inflow to Lake Altus, an important water source for the surrounding communities. The impact of climate variability on hydrologic systems and the resulting effects on basins has become an important topic in assessing future water resources. Global climate projections from general circulation models, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), have been developed to improve the understanding of climate science and forecast future climatic conditions. Due to the impact of climate variations on groundwater resources, it is important to communicate the ranges of results with water resource managers. To approximate a range in future base flow conditions and flow into Lake Altus, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate data was downscaled to watershed scale using monthly Bias-Correction Spatial Disaggregation techniques. A time-series of scaling factors were developed and interpolated for three climate scenarios (central tendency, warmer/drier, and less warm-wetter) representing a range of future climate conditions for the period 2045–2074. These scaling factors were then applied to an existing soil-water-balance model dataset with climate data for the baseline period 1980–2009 to produce recharge and evapotranspiration estimations for this future period. The downscaled climate data was applied to the finite-difference numerical groundwater-flow model of the North Fork Red River aquifer using MODFLOW-2005 with the Newton formulation solver (MODFLOW-NWT) which was temporally discretized into 373 monthly transient stress periods representing the period 1980–2010. Three climate scenarios (central tendency, warmer/drier, and less warm/wetter) representing a range of future climate conditions for the period 2045–2074 were simulated. This USGS data release contains all of the input and output files for the simulations described in the associated journal article (http://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02230-x). The previously developed model of the North Fork Red River Aquifer was used to evaluate (1) the changes to base flow in the North Fork Red River for a simulated future period, (2) the impact of these base flow changes on storage in Lake Altus, and (3) the impact of changes in aquifer water levels on stage in Lake Altus, which is hydrogeologically connected to the aquifer. The results from project climate scenarios could be used to evaluate the allocation of water rights of the aquifer and to manage water resources for Lake Altus. The development of the model input and output files included in this data release are documented in associated journal article (http://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02230-x). Support is provided for correcting errors in the data release and clarification of the modeling conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. Users are encouraged to review the original model documentation report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175098) and the associated journal article (http://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02230-x) to understand the purpose, construction, and limitations of this model. The model will run successfully only if the original directory structure is correctly restored. The model archive is broken into several pieces to reduce the likelihood of download timeouts. Instructions for reconstructing the original directory structure and running the models included in this data release and described in the model documentation report can be found in the readme.txt ASCII file which can be downloaded as part of this data release. 19800101 20101231 publication date Complete Not planned -100.240846 -98.871304 35.512863 34.569342 ISO 19115 Topic Category geoscientificInformation inlandWaters environment USGS Thesaurus usgsgroundwatermodel MODFLOW-NWT Climate Model Downscaling Soil Water Balance Groundwater Groundwater Model Groundwater and surface-water interaction inlandWaters USGS Metadata Identifier USGS:1e9f2f0c-50b6-45c7-a7e6-1e6c3e294e14 Geographic Names Information System (GNIS) North Fork Red River Oklahoma Beckham County Greer County Jackson County Kiowa County Roger Mills County Lake Altus Tom Steed Reservoir None. Acknowledgement of the U.S. Geological Survey would be appreciated in products derived from this data release. Neither the U.S. Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, contractors, or subcontractors, make any warranty, express or implied, nor assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any data, software, information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, nor represent that its use would not infringe on privately owned rights. Trade, firm, or product names and other references to non-USGS products and services are provided for information only and do not constitute endorsement or warranty, express or implied, by the USGS, USDOI, or U.S. Government, as to their suitability, content, usefulness, functioning, completeness, or accuracy. Laura G. Labriola U.S. Geological Survey Oklahoma Water Science Center mailing and physical

202 NW 66th Street

Oklahoma City OK 73116 USA 405-693-9732 llabriola@usgs.gov https://water.usgs.gov/GIS/browse/labriola2020_hj.jpg Image showing the model domain with active and inactive areas of the numerical groundwater-flow model for the North Fork Red River aquifer in southwest Oklahoma jpg The collection and analysis of these data were funded by the Bureau of Reclamation. None Unclassified None S. Jerrod Smith John H. Ellis Derrick L. Wagner Steven M. Peterson 2017 publication Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5098 Reston, VA, USA U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175098 S. Jerrod Smith John H. Ellis Derrick L. Wagner Steven M. Peterson 2017 groundwater model U.S. Geological Survey data release 1 Reston, VA, USA U.S. Geological Survey https://doi.org/10.5066/F7JQ0ZXH No additional calibration was conducted for this model. No formal logical accuracy tests were conducted Data set is considered complete for the information presented, as described in the abstract. Users are advised to read the metadata record, the original model documentation report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175098), and the associated journal article (http://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02230-x) for additional details. No formal positional accuracy tests were conducted No formal positional accuracy tests were conducted The process used to develop, calibrate, and apply the groundwater flow model is fully described in the original model documentation report (https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175098), and the associated journal article (http://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02230-x). 2020 Raster Pixel Transverse Mercator 0.9996 -99.0 0.0 500000 0.0 row and column 270 270 meters North American Vertical Datum of 1988 1.0 feet Attribute values labriola2020_hj.shp ESRI Polygon shapefile U.S. Geological Survey AREA Text string indicating whether the model cell is active or inactive https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175098 usgsgroundwatermodel Delineation of active and inactive areas in the model. https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175098 Labriola, L.G., Ellis, J.H., Pruitt, T., Gangopadhyay, S., 2020, MODFLOW-NWT model used in simulations of selected climate scenarios of groundwater availability in the North Fork Red River aquifer, southwestern Oklahoma: U.S. Geological Survey data release https://doi.org/10.5066/P91DWW91 U.S. Geological Survey Michael Ierardi IT Specialist mailing and physical address

445 National Center

Reston VA 20192 USA 1-888-275-8747 (1-888-ASK-USGS) mierardi@usgs.gov Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data for other purposes, nor on all computer systems, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. Although this information product, for the most part, is in the public domain, it also may contain copyrighted materials as noted in the text. Permission to reproduce copyrighted items must be secured from the copyright owner. Although these data have been processed successfully on a computer system at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data for other purposes, nor on all computer systems, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty. The USGS or the U.S. Government shall not be held liable for improper or incorrect use of the data described and/or contained herein. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. readme.txt 1.0 ASCII text file This ASCII text file describes the model data release including the archive folder structure and files contained within each subfolder. This file also includes instructions on how to run the models contained in this data release. 0.034 https://water.usgs.gov/GIS/dsdl/gwmodels/labriola2020_hj/readme.txt modelgeoref.txt 1.0 ASCII text file This ASCII text file defines the four corners of the model domain. Model coordinates are in decimal degrees. 0.001 https://water.usgs.gov/GIS/dsdl/gwmodels/labriola2020_hj/modelgeoref.txt ancillary.zip 1.0 ZIP This ZIP file contains ancillary data files that may aid in the interpretation of model results including a python script to calculate storage. The scaling factors for the climate scenarios are included and the input and output files for the SWB model scenario simulations. 2378.794 https://water.usgs.gov/GIS/dsdl/gwmodels/labriola2020_hj/ancillary.zip bin.zip 1.0 ZIP file ZIP file containing the MODFLOW-NWT (version 1.0.8), SWB, and ZoneBudget 64-bit executables used to run the simulations and complete the recharge estimates, and budget analysis documented in the journal article. 4.949 https://water.usgs.gov/GIS/dsdl/gwmodels/labriola2020_hj/bin.zip georef.zip 1.0 ZIP file ZIP file containing a shapefile which defines the extent of the model domain and active and inactive portions of the model. 0.0446 https://water.usgs.gov/GIS/dsdl/gwmodels/labriola2020_hj/georef.zip model.zip 1.0 ZIP file This ZIP file contains the input files for the MODFLOW-NWT simulations documented in the journal article. 138.620 https://water.usgs.gov/GIS/dsdl/gwmodels/labriola2020_hj/model.zip output.zip 1.0 ZIP file This ZIP file contains the output files for the MODFLOW-NWT simulations documented in the journal article. 1896.427 https://water.usgs.gov/GIS/dsdl/gwmodels/labriola2020_hj/output.zip source.zip 1.0 ZIP file ZIP file containing source files for containing the MODFLOW-NWT (version 1.0.8), SWB, and Zonebudget used to run the simulations and complete the budget analysis documented in the journal article. 87.786 https://water.usgs.gov/GIS/dsdl/gwmodels/labriola2020_hj/source.zip None 20201117 U.S. Geological Survey Ask USGS -- Water Webserver Team mailing

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Reston VA 20192 1-888-275-8747 (1-888-ASK-USGS) mierardi@usgs.gov FGDC Content Standards for Digital Geospatial Metadata FGDC-STD-001-1998